What factors are driving Arizona’s luxury home market growth?

Key drivers include steady in-migration, limited availability of high-end properties, strong demand from out-of-state buyers, and continuing interest in custom new builds — especially in top neighborhoods like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler.

Is the luxury home market expected to continue rising in 2026?

Yes — many analysts quoted in 2025 forecasts expect a moderate price increase of 3–6% across Arizona’s luxury segment in 2026, supported by ongoing demand, new luxury construction in key areas, and continued buyer interest.

Which Arizona neighborhoods are seen as hot for luxury real estate in 2026?

Prime neighborhoods include Scottsdale (notably luxury communities such as Silverleaf, DC Ranch, Troon North), Paradise Valley for ultra-luxury estates, and parts of Chandler that are seeing increasing demand and development — all showing strong demand and limited resale inventory.

What risks could slow down growth in the luxury home market?

Potential risks include interest-rate fluctuations, economic instability, changes in buyer migration patterns, or an unexpected rise in supply. Any of these could moderate appreciation or lengthen time on market for high-end homes.

What factors are driving Arizona’s luxury home market growth?

Arizona’s luxury real estate growth is driven by steady in-migration, limited high-end inventory, out-of-state demand, and continued interest in custom new builds in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler.

Will Arizona’s luxury home market continue rising in 2026?

Analysts expect a 3–6% price increase for Arizona luxury homes in 2026 due to ongoing buyer demand, limited supply, and new luxury construction in key areas.

Which neighborhoods are expected to perform best in 2026?

Top-performing areas are forecast to include Scottsdale (Silverleaf, DC Ranch, Troon North), Paradise Valley, and several Chandler communities experiencing rapid luxury development.

What risks could impact Arizona’s luxury housing market?

Possible risks include fluctuating interest rates, economic instability, shifting migration trends, or any unexpected increases in inventory.

Published November 12, 2025

Will Arizona’s Luxury Home Market Keep Rising in 2026?

Written by Mary Murphy

Elegant desert neighborhood at sunset featuring modern luxury homes, palm trees, and a warm golden sky, overlaid with the text ““Will Arizona’s Luxury Home Market Keep Rising in 2026?”

Will Arizona’s Luxury Home Market Keep Rising in 2026?

Arizona’s luxury home market has been on a remarkable run. Fueled by steady in-migration, limited inventory, and record-breaking sales, 2025 saw values climb across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler.

But will the trend continue into 2026?

According to Mary Murphy, founder of The Murphy Group, demand is still outpacing supply — especially in the $2M+ segment:

“Buyers relocating from California, Chicago, and New York are driving our top-tier market. They want space, sun, and style — and Arizona delivers all three.”

🌵 1. Scottsdale — The Heart of Arizona Luxury

Once a seasonal destination, Scottsdale has evolved into a year-round hub for affluent buyers seeking high-end amenities and desert beauty.

Average Luxury Home Price: $2.5M–$6M

Hotspots: Silverleaf, DC Ranch, and Troon North

Trends:

Custom new builds with wellness-focused design (gyms, spas, smart tech)
Demand for golf course and mountain-view estates
Limited resale inventory pushing new construction values higher

💬 “Scottsdale remains Arizona’s lifestyle capital,” says Mary.
“It blends sophistication with adventure — and that balance is irresistible to luxury buyers.”

🏜️ 2. Paradise Valley — Timeless Prestige

Known for its exclusivity and breathtaking views, Paradise Valley continues to set the bar for ultra-luxury living in Arizona.

Average Luxury Home Price: $4M–$12M+
Signature Features: Private compounds, resort amenities, Camelback Mountain vistas

Market Insight:

Ultra-luxury segment ($8M+) remains strong with limited supply
Custom rebuilds dominating 2025 permits
Cash buyers driving competition

🏡 “Paradise Valley is about legacy,” Mary explains.
“You’re not just buying a home — you’re buying a statement property that rarely hits the market.”

🌴 3. Chandler — The East Valley’s Rising Star

Long known for its family-friendly communities and tech presence, Chandler has transformed into one of Arizona’s most dynamic luxury markets.

Average Luxury Home Price: $1.4M–$3.5M

Top Neighborhoods: Ocotillo, Fulton Ranch, and Circle G Ranches

Market Trends:

Continued demand for waterfront and gated estates
Tech industry relocations fueling upper-tier demand
Limited listings keeping appreciation steady through 2026

💬 “Chandler’s luxury homes offer livable elegance,” Mary notes.
“Buyers love the blend of modern design, strong schools, and accessibility to major employers.”

📊 2025 Market Snapshot

Area	Median Luxury Price	Avg. Days on Market	Inventory Level
Scottsdale	$3.2M	44	Low
Paradise Valley	$5.6M	51	Very Limited
Chandler	$1.9M	47	Moderate

💼 Buyer Insight

Buyers entering 2026 are prioritizing turnkey luxury — move-in-ready homes with advanced technology, resort-style outdoor spaces, and flexible work areas.

However, competition remains fierce:

Off-market deals are increasingly common.
Cash offers and quick closes dominate the $2M+ segment.

“We’re helping clients secure properties before they even go public,” Mary says.
“That’s the advantage of local connections and deep market insight.”

📈 Outlook for 2026

Market analysts forecast a 3–6% price increase across Arizona’s luxury sector in 2026, led by:

Corporate relocations and business expansion in the Valley
New ultra-luxury construction in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley
Continued demand from out-of-state and international buyers

Rising land values and limited inventory suggest continued growth, albeit at a slower, more sustainable pace.

📲 Ready to Explore Arizona’s Luxury Market?

From mountaintop estates in Paradise Valley to modern waterfront homes in Chandler, The Murphy Group offers concierge-level expertise and exclusive market access.

📞 Start your search today at www.mgsellsarizona.com